Here's The Next $1 Trillion Company


 

Here's The Next $1 Trillion Company. 

The idea of an S&P 500 company hitting $1 trillion in market value used to seem impossible. But Tesla (TSLA) just did it — and analysts insist another is on the way. Analysts think Facebook (FB) should be the sixth S&P 500 company valued at $1 trillion or more in 12 months or less, returning it to the trillion-dollar club. It would put the social networking giant in the same trillion-dollar league as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN) and now Tesla.


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Shares of Facebook closed Monday at 328.69, down more than 14% from the 52-week high. That parked the company's valuation at $927 billion. But that was prior to the company late Monday topping third-quarter profit forecasts by 1.3% and jumping in after-hours trading to north of 337 a share. At this price, Facebook is worth $950 billion. It's only a matter of time until Facebook returns to the rarefied trillion-dollar air, though, say S&P 500 analysts. 


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Trillion Dollar Redux For Facebook

Predicting Facebook will be a $1 trillion company is somewhat of an anticlimactic call. The company first closed above a trillion-dollar valuation back in July of this year. But since then, it's been on a rough run. Allegations of putting profit ahead of users' mental health, a high-profile outage and exposure to data limits at Apple knocked Facebook from its trillion-dollar perch. Snap's (SNAP) recent disappointing third quarter and warning of problems tailoring social media ads on iPhones only fanned the worries.


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But analysts remain resolute on Facebook's future. They're calling for the stock to rally another 27% from Monday's close to 416.43 in 12 months, says data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith. And if they're right, that would make Facebook a company valued at $1.17 billion. Should you buy Facebook stock now? Interestingly, if analysts are right, Facebook would supplant Tesla as the fifth most-valuable company in the S&P 500. Analysts actually think Tesla's stock will drop 23% to 787.15. And if that's correct, it means Tesla would be worth just $779.3 billion, or a third less than what they think Facebook will be worth in 12 months. Should you buy Tesla stock now? 


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Who's Up In S&P 500 After Facebook?

Facebook and Tesla might jockey for the trillion-dollar prize. But other than those two, are any other S&P 500 stocks anywhere near a trillion? Nothing immediate. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) would appear next in line, as its market value is now $657.9 billion. Analysts, though, think even in 12 months time the company will be worth just $730.8 billion, falling shy of the trillion-dollar mark by nearly 40%. Also, it's not a particularly fast grower, so unlikely to surprise much to the upside. Analysts think Berkshire Hathaway's adjusted profit per share will only grow by 6.9% in 2022.


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Visa (V) is a likely candidate in due time. The payment processing firm is already worth nearly $500 billion. And its adjusted profit per share is seen jumping 25% in 2022 to $7.26. Even so, analysts don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. Analysts are calling for the stock to inch up just 0.9% in 12 months. So it seems the world might need to be satisfied with five, or maybe six, trillion dollar companies. 


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It was a banner year and month for the S&P 500. The index skyrocketed 28% during 2019, capped off with a 2.9% gain in December. That was the index's sixth strongest monthly gain last year. But technology, again, was the place to be in December. The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 4% during the month, more than any of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) turned in the month's second-best sector showing, but gained just 2.5%.


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And you could do much, much better, which is impressive given just how much the S&P 500 rose. Three of the top 10 S&P 500 stocks during the month were in the information technology sector. Other than Western Digital, the other top winner was Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), up 23% in December. Skyworks makes semiconductors often used in mobile applications. Investors are getting in ahead of a strong year for 5G gear demand.


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And then there was chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), up 17.1% in December. The company is benefiting from investors piling into the group ahead of what many expect to be a strong 2020 for chip demand. Looking at the top S&P 500 stocks in December shows an unexpected twist: Select energy stocks rallied. Six of the top 10 S&P 500 during the last month of the year were in the energy sector. It seems like investors are moving early on analysts' high hopes for the beat-down sector.


But investors are looking at energy stock very selectively. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose just 2% during December. That ranks energy just eighth out of the 11 sectors. Keep in mind, too, the energy sector lagged all year, gaining less than 5%. That makes energy the worst of the 11 sectors in 2019. Contrast the sector's poor relative performance in the month with Concho Resources (CXO). Shares of the Midland, Texas-based oil and gas explorer are up 20.7% in December. Analysts think the company's earnings per share will fall 39% in 2019 to $2.78. But that's likely the bottom. Analysts also think Concho's EPS will rise nearly 50% in 2020.


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